Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
